Nuclear Tipping Point Screening at Council

In 2007, four men with distinguished careers in American diplomacy and national security wrote two op-eds in the Wall Street Journal promoting a world free of nuclear weapons and explaining the path to get there. The four, former Secretary of State George Shultz, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, former Secretary of Defense Bill Perry and former Senator Sam Nunn, discuss their views in more detail in the documentary film The Nuclear Tipping Point. The men continue to speak about nuclear non-proliferation.

Last week, Senator Nunn appeared on the Colbert Report and discussed the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the threat of nuclear terrorism and the necessity of global cooperation “to take the steps we need to protect American citizens.” Watch the interview here:

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Next week, on Monday, June 21 Secretary Shultz will be at the Council to host a members-only screening of the documentary film.

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Are Outcomes to National Security Challenges Predictable?

“Game theory is a transparent form of logic that, with data, can predict the future,” according to Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, the Council’s speaker on October 26 and author of the recent book The Predictioneer’s Game. Bueno de Mesquita said his models, which have a 90 percent accuracy rate, require four basic pieces of information to make a prediction about a given group or person’s likely actions: What does it say it wants? How important is that issue? How resolved is it in its opinion? How much clout does it bring to the table?

Responding to an audience member’s question, Bueno de Mesquita spoke about the ways policies can be shaped by a prediction as well as the ways the model itself can use different variables to simulate more positive outcomes. While his computer model may not be 100 percent accurate, Bueno de Mesquita was quick to point out that it performs much better than a team of analysts because of its greatly increased capacity to crunch a large set of numbers.

You can hear the full program at our online archive. If you would like to try Bueno de Mesquita’s model, you can use a trial version on his website at www.PredictioneersGame.com. To learn more about Bueno de Mesquita’s predictions, including those about the upcoming Copenhagen summit, check out his article in the current issue of Foreign Policy. Remember that becoming a member of the Council entitles you to a free subscription to Foreign Policy magazine.

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Asilomar Keynote named National Security Advisor

Yesterday in Chicago, President-Elect Obama introduced his national security team – the individuals that will lead us through the challenges posed by two complicated wars, rising nuclear threats, unrest in the Middle East, and persistent dependence on oil, among others.

For his National Security Advisor, Obama named General James L. Jones, a familiar face that spoke as our keynote speaker this year at our Annual Conference at Asilomar. And, more famously, a decorated combat veteran and polished diplomat who served the United States in the Marine Corps for more than 40 years. He served as the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe from 2003 to 2006, and since retiring in February of last year, is now the president and CEO of the Republican-dominated U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Institute for 21st Century Energy.

Obama chose General Jones for his understanding of the connection between energy and security, and chiefly because of their shared desire to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil. Jones’ time in the White House will be spent coordinating defense and foreign policy among the Pentagon, State Department, intelligence agencies and others – and most of this will likely relate to wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, with little time left for energy policy. Jones’s history indicates that he will support a national energy policy advocating for more of all kinds of power, and renewable energy will be just one part of the solution, not the central focus.A point that some observers believe will lead to disagreements between Jones and more pro-green revolution types in the new administration.

Mr. Obama hopes that General Jones’ strong position in both diplomacy and security will help the new administration better integrate efforts across sectors, and enable him to mediate between rivals. We look forward to seeing what role he plays in integrating our security policy with energy policy in the coming years.

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Vetting Senator Clinton

As President-Elect Obama prepares for taking office on January 20th, speculation abounds on the names surfacing as potentials for major cabinet positions. One name that has been the subject of much discussion in the past few days is that of Senator Hillary Clinton. President-Elect Obama met with her in Chicago to discuss the possibility of naming her as the next Secretary of State. In the vetting process, however, it is her husband, former President Bill Clinton, that is under the most media scrutiny.

In an article from today’s issue of the Chronicle of Philanthropy, World Affairs Council President & CEO Jane Wales is quoted on what this process will mean for President Clinton’s philanthropic work, and how Senator Hillary Clinton’s appointment might change and restrict the work of the Clinton Foundation, and President Clinton’s work more generally.

Here, Jane Wales interviews President Clinton at the Aspen Ideas Fest about the power of philanthropy to affect change and other global issues.

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